Tuesday, 14 August 2012

Interesting Read

One of Benjamin Graham's most famous quotes goes thus: "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine." That is indeed so true. In the short to medium term, share markets may witness wide irrational swings. But in the long run, share market valuations tend to reflect the true fundamentals.

How do share markets function in the short to medium term? It is important to understand that stock prices usually reflect the future expectations of market participants from the real economy. It may so happen that a bull run commences months before earnings actually show an improvement. Similar, markets may start falling even before earnings show any deterioration. Of course, it is impossible to determine the lead and lag time in such cases. Moreover, the market expectations may not always translate into reality. On many occasions markets are prone to false anticipation.